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Warning over independent currency

Feb 21 2013

 

Scotland should be ready to adopt an independent currency if the country votes in favour of leaving the UK, a leading economist is warning.

In a lecture, Professor John Kay will say that the Scottish Government "would be right" to try to form a monetary union with the rest of the UK.

But he will add that it could be "difficult" to negotiate an agreement that would give Scotland the fiscal freedom sought through independence.

The Scottish Government favours keeping the pound if the country were to become independent after next year's referendum, with SNP ministers proposing the country would be part of a "sterling zone" with the rest of the UK.

Prof Kay, a visiting Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics and a Fellow of St John's College Oxford, is to raise the issue of the currency in an independent Scotland in a talk at Glasgow University.

The former member of the Scottish Government's Council of Economic Advisers will state: "The currency issue is crucial - Scotland would be right to seek agreement on monetary union with the remaining United Kingdom, but it would be difficult to negotiate an agreement that would be consistent with the fiscal freedom sought through independence.

"Scotland should be ready to adopt an independent currency. Market expectations would begin to force events from the day a Yes vote was obtained."

In his lecture Prof Kay will say that in the event of independence, oil revenues would be "split on a formula strongly favourable to Scotland".

Finance Secretary John Swinney welcomed the remarks, saying: "John Kay joins a growing range of experts who agree that Scotland's negotiations to continue in the EU as an independent country will be straightforward."

But Tory deputy leader Jackson Carlaw questioned the SNP's policy on the currency for an independent Scotland. He said: "The Scottish Government seems to think it will be waved in by the Bank of England without any questions and given a prime seat on the Monetary Policy Committee. That privilege isn't afforded to any other separate state, so why would Salmond's separate Scotland be any different?"

 

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